Sylvan Island chance of flooding this year
The river level predictions are just out- these are difficult because the gauges are placed just upstream of the locks, so this graph shows the upstream end of the islands water levels. We usually have water problems on the downstream end, and the gauge for this pool is near Muscatine (the two levels around the island are about 6-10 ft different due to the locks and the generating stations.)
This looks like we've got a 100% chance of hitting 15ft AT SOME TIME this spring- not necessarily on race day. 15 ft in the lower pool usually is just creeping up on the lime path on the downstream edge of the island and makes good use of the little bridge next to the sharp hill.
For reference, the top of the concrete next to the entrance bridge on the island side is 21.8 ft and it looks like we've got a 50% chance of hitting that one. 
The blue line is historical, the black one is the statistical probability for this spring based on snow melt, ground water and moisture levels, etc. frankly- it ain't lookin good...
Check it for yourself here:http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/perio...0,7,8,2,9,15,6
Last edited by Vibrato; 02-24-2011 at 03:09 PM.
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